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By Mike Telford
I am a first-generation potato grower. I planted my first crop when I was 26 years old in 1974. Over the years I have grown for processors, been a member-owner of a fresh shed cooperative and for the past 34 years—along with my sons—have been involved in seed potato production.
I remember the financial near-death experience many farms faced during the agricultural depression of the early 1980s. I was involved in the formation of United Potato Growers of America and have been a student of this industry for over 50 years.
When I started farming in 1974 there were more than 2,000 potato farmers in Idaho. Today there are fewer than 200 operations.
Over the years we have seen many ups and downs, structural changes and market corrections. Occasionally, however, our industry faces moments when the changes are so significant that failing to recognize them can lead to financial disaster.
Because demand for potatoes is relatively inelastic, periods of oversupply create severe price swings that growers struggle to survive. We saw that in 2000 and 2004 when millions of hundredweight of potatoes were fed to cattle or dumped on rocks. Exceptional yields and too many acres planted created massive surpluses. Today we are seeing something similar again. Millions of hundredweight of good potatoes have been sold at little or no return—and in some cases this is the second or third year in a row. The difference today is that the cost of production has roughly doubled since those earlier years.
Since November I have heard a consistent message from several industry leaders: Times are not changing—they have already changed.
Three major forces are driving this shift.
First: Inflation
Post-COVID inflation raised prices across the food system, particularly for snack foods and restaurants. That reduced demand and changed consumer behavior. Over time markets will adjust, but it takes time for incomes, pricing, and demand to rebalance.
The work of Potatoes USA, the National Potato Council (NPC), and state commissions to promote the nutritional value of potatoes is more important than ever. Their efforts have been tremendous and must continue.
Second: GLP-1 and weight-loss drugs
Millions of Americans are now using medications that significantly reduce calorie intake. These consumers simply eat less and prioritize protein. Food companies are already adapting their products to reflect this trend, like Idahoan Foods, which has introduced a new line of protein-added products.
No one knows exactly how this will impact long-term demand, but it is clearly something our industry must pay attention to. Continuing to promote potatoes as a healthy, nutritious food and expanding markets wherever possible will be essential. Embracing the MAHA movement is essential.
Third—and most disrupting—is foreign competition
Europe, China, and India are rapidly expanding processing capacity and producing competitive finished products. The concern is not only imports into the U.S., but also the loss of export markets that American growers and processors have built over decades.
Today the United States imports more potato products—primarily from Canada and the European Union—than we export. That should concern every grower. Organizations like NPC have done an outstanding job opening markets and addressing trade barriers. The work being done to address Canadian and particularly British Columbia trade issues is long overdue and deserves support.
But success requires both offense and defense. We must also protect the markets we already have. We need to understand the real economics. Are potatoes truly being produced and delivered from Europe to the East Coast cheaper than from plants in the American Midwest? If so, why?
We need the facts
I do not claim to have all the answers. But I do know the first step in addressing any serious challenge is identifying the problem, gathering the facts and developing a strategy.
If maintaining a level playing field requires policy changes or tariff protections, then those options should be discussed. It is always easier to defend markets than to win them back after they are lost. The growing processing capacity in China and India is a real long-term threat. If they capture significant portions of our export markets, the consequences for American potato growers will be devastating.
For the next several years we have an administration that strongly supports American producers and believes in leveling the playing field. That principle should apply to American potato farm families and the industry they support. President Trump was elected in part by frying French fries at McDonalds. I wonder what he would think if he knew that there is a good chance those potatoes were imports.
We all know the saying about closing the barn door after the cow is already out. For months the message from those studying this industry has been clear: Times are not changing. They have already changed. The cow is already in the door.
Let us recognize the situation, gather the facts and act—before we are forced to react.
Editor’s Note: Views expressed by the author are personal opinion and do not necessarily reflect the views of Potato Country or Columbia Media Group. If you would like to publish “In Your Words,” email dave@columbiamediagroup.com