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By Ben Eborn, Publisher, North American Potato Market News
Though North America’s 2025 potato crop varies by region, total production in the processing states and provinces is expected to be down only 0.4% from the 2024 crop. Europe’s 2025 potato crop is expected to increase relative to the previous year. In this article, we explore the North American and European frozen processing potato supply situation and its potential impact on frozen product sales and consumption.
US Supply Situation
U.S. potato production (as of press time) is expected to match the size of the 2024 crop at 421 million cwt. If realized, the 2025 potato crop would be 0.4% larger than the five-year average. In the Columbia Basin, production will likely fall 5%-6% below the 2024 crop. The yields and quality for most early processing potato varieties were exceptional – the best ever produced. However, reports suggest that yields for full-season varieties have been slightly above average and similar to last year’s crop.
Idaho growers planted 315,000 acres of potatoes in 2025, the same as they planted in 2024. Reports from growers across Idaho suggest that processing potato yields were near record levels for most varieties. In addition, recovery rates are above average. Storage space was limited in some areas. If our forecast is accurate, Idaho’s production could exceed the 2024 crop by 4%-5%. It would be the state’s second-largest potato crop since 2018, behind 2023.
September in the Midwest was one of the warmest on record. Reports indicate that the warm weather gave potatoes a late-season yield boost. As a result, frozen processing supplies are expected to be slightly above budget in the Midwest processing states. High temperatures only allowed growers to harvest potatoes early in the morning or late in the evening. Some finished harvesting without being able to dig for a single full day. Growers and processors are pleased with the size and shape of this year’s processing potatoes, though the large size has resulted in slightly lower specific gravities. Growers in both Minnesota and North Dakota report above-average yields. In Wisconsin, yields for processing potatoes were better than expected; however, there may be some quality issues due to the late-summer heat.
Maine should have an adequate supply of potatoes for processing. Growers planted nearly the same acreage as last year despite contract reductions. Yields for processing potatoes were close to average. The state experienced ideal harvest conditions, which allowed growers to finish digging earlier than usual. Maine growers are pleased with the quality of this year’s crop. They have been shipping extra potatoes to Prince Edward Island, Canada, where local raw product supplies are limited.
Canadian Supply Situation
At 124.4 million cwt, Canada is expected to produce its third-largest potato crop on record, down 2.9% from the 2024 crop. The industry has expanded processing capacity in Alberta. Raw product supplies in Alberta are up this year, though they are down in Manitoba. Combined production in those provinces is currently expected to exceed the 2024 crop by 1%-2%. In the eastern part of the country, production is expected to be down in Prince Edward Island, New Brunswick and Quebec. To cover the supply gap in Prince Edward Island, the major processor has started importing potatoes from Maine and New Brunswick. Potatoes will likely be shipped from the Prairie Provinces to New Brunswick next spring.
Overall, Canadian fryers should have access to enough raw product to operate plants at planned levels through the 2025-26 processing season, though it may require importing potatoes from other growing areas. On the other hand, U.S. fryers should not need to import processing potatoes from Canada this year.
European Supply Situation
Growers in the EU’s top five French fry exporting countries – Belgium, the Netherlands, France, Germany and Poland – planted more potatoes this year than they did in 2024. Current estimates are that the five major exporting countries planted a combined 2.54 million acres of potatoes this year, 7.4% more than they planted in 2024, according to World Potato Markets, a European publication. The EU’s MARS crop monitoring service expects yields to exceed 2024 levels in Belgium, France, the Netherlands and Poland. However, yields are projected to fall short of last year’s record in Germany. Based on current acreage and yield estimates, the top five European exporting countries are expected to produce 921.5 million cwt of potatoes for the 2025 crop. That is 75 million cwt more than those countries produced in 2024, an 8.9% increase.
Impact on French Fry Sales
North American fryers have been able to expand global French fry sales during the past several months. North American fryers shipped 0.6% more frozen potato products to offshore markets during the year ending July 31 than they did a year earlier (August data are not available due to the federal government shutdown). Though North American potato production is down slightly from last year, raw product supplies are sufficient for the 2025-26 processing season.
EU frozen product sales were held back by competition and raw product supply constraints last year. EU exports were down 6.3% during the year ending July 31. However, potato production is up significantly for the 2025 crop. Both North American and European fryers could produce more French fries and other frozen potato products during the 2025-26 processing season.
French fry demand growth has been relatively steady. Global French fry exports were up 4.9% during the 12 months ending July 31. Global exports have grown by an average of 4.3% per year during the past 10 years. Raw product supplies should be adequate in the major processing regions of North America for a modest 1%-3% increase in sales. However, market constraints, global competition and economic uncertainty may hold production and sales from the 2025 crop below our estimate.