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By Ben Eborn, Publisher, North American Potato Market News
USDA reports that growers in the 13 reporting states planted 912,000 acres of potatoes in 2025. That is 18,000 fewer acres than they planted in 2024, a 1.9% reduction. Most of the planted area reduction came in Washington, though acreage also was down in Maine, Minnesota and North Dakota.
Reports from Canada show that growers planted 394,215 acres of potatoes this year. That is only 262 fewer acres than they planted last year; however, there were major acreage shifts between provinces. Manitoba reduced potato acreage by 10,400 acres, while Alberta’s planted area increased by 3,500 acres.
The combined North American potato area is 1.306 million acres, down 18,262 acres, or 1.4%, from the 2024 crop. Over the past 10 years, Canadian potato acreage has expanded by 13.8%. U.S. potato acreage is down 7.7% relative to 2016 levels.
Abandonment
USDA projects this year’s harvested area at 905,900 acres. That is 19,500 fewer acres than growers harvested in 2024, a 2.1% reduction. A year ago, U.S. growers abandoned 4,600 acres of potatoes, 0.5% of the planted acreage. During the previous five years, abandonment has averaged 0.7% of the U.S. potato area.
Canadian growers abandoned 8,229 acres of potatoes during 2024 due to heavy rainfall in the eastern provinces and limited demand and storage space in the Prairie Provinces. That was 2.1% of all potatoes planted. Abandonment averaged 2.5% during the previous five years. Because there have been only a few reports of abandonment so far this growing season, we have held our estimate of Canadian abandonment at 1.5%. Canada’s 2025 harvested area would be 388,302 acres.
Based on these harvested acreage estimates, the combined North American 2025 harvested acreage would be 1.294 million acres, down 1.3% from 2024 levels.
Yields, Potential Production
The U.S. long-term trend yield is 463 cwt per acre. That is up from the current estimate for the 2024 yield, 454 cwt per acre. Using the trend yield and projected abandonment, the U.S. would be expected to produce 419.4 million cwt of potatoes during 2025. That is only 810,000 cwt, or 0.2%, less than 2024 production, and it nearly matches the five-year average.
Cananda’s average potato yield has increased by about 3.3 cwt per acre per year for the past 10 years. The long-term trend yield for the 2025 crop is 332 cwt per acre. The current yield estimate for last year’s crop also is 332 cwt per acre. With a trend yield and estimated abandonment, Canada would produce a 129 million cwt crop during 2025. That would exceed 2024 production by 782,000 cwt or 0.6%.
North American potato production could remain flat despite this year’s acreage reduction. Estimated abandonment and trend yields suggest that North America’s 2025 potato crop could total 548.4 million cwt. That nearly matches 2024 production. However, it would be 8.8 million cwt, or 1.6%, more than the five-year average production for the U.S. and Canada combined. Using trendline yields and average abandonment is a good place to start estimating total production. It only takes average growing conditions to produce a trendline yield. However, there are many other factors that can and will impact potato production between the time I write this article and the time you sit down to read it. And a lot can happen before harvest is complete.
Spring planting conditions were mostly favorable across North America. Growers in the Pacific Northwest planted one to two weeks earlier than usual. As a result, crop development is ahead of schedule in Idaho and the Columbia Basin. Most Idaho growers are expecting strong yields. Growing conditions in the Prairie Provinces also have been favorable. Summer rain has improved the crop outlook in Alberta, though water supplies are still tight. Growers are optimistic about this year’s crop. Considering these factors, North American potato production could end up exceeding trend yield projections.
Processing, Table Potato Supply Situation
Growers in the Columbia Basin reduced acreage for processing potatoes due to large contract reductions. Idaho growers may have planted more open-market fry-quality potatoes than usual with the hope that raw-product demand will improve during the 2025-26 processing season. Planted area reports suggest that growers in some of the other processing states and provinces may have done the same thing, but to a smaller extent. Overall, PNW growers planted 15,000 fewer acres of potatoes than they did in 2024. All this year’s acreage reduction is in Washington. That acreage, combined with trendline yields, would result in a 2.8% downturn in PNW potato production. Demand for early varieties is down, as fryers plan to run storage potatoes from the 2024 crop longer than usual this year. In addition, yields for early-harvested potatoes have been above average due to nearly ideal growing conditions, especially in the Pacific Northwest. Raw-product supplies from the 2025 crop, for both frozen and dehy processing, will likely be abundant again this year despite significant contract cuts.
Below breakeven open-market prices have not been enough to encourage growers to cut back on russet potato production. If USDA’s planted area estimates are correct, russet table potato supplies will likely increase significantly during the 2025-26 marketing year. Growers in several russet producing regions increased acreage this year. Some processing potato growers who received contract cuts planted Norkotahs or other table potato varieties. At 315,000 acres, Idaho’s planted area combined with a trend yield would boost the state’s total production to 140.3 million cwt, which is 5.1 million cwt, or 3.8%, larger than the 2024 crop. Canadian growers also appear to have increased russet table potato acreage in 2025. In addition, carryover from the 2024 crop is expected to be larger than usual. Marketers will be challenged to hold and/or increase prices during August and September as the harvest gets underway.