Fresh potato markets have remained relatively balanced following harvest, as marketers carefully manage movement to maintain prices that provide reasonable returns to growers. Idaho Russet shipping-point prices are up 126% from a year ago, at $23.87 per cwt. The Grower Returns Index has been near $10 per cwt this fall, compared with an average of $3.35 for the 2025 crop, with some growers reporting russet returns closer to the $14 to $16 per cwt range. At those levels, most open-market producers should be profitable with the 2026 crop, depending on the remaining supplies in storage and the pace at which those potatoes move to market.
Export trends have been mixed. U.S. fresh potato exports reached a record 1.29 million cwt in August, up 50.5% from the previous year, while french fry and other frozen product exports fell 18.2%. Overall potato exports declined 3.0% to 5.58 million cwt. The divergence points to continued strength in fresh potato movement alongside softer international demand for processed U.S. products.
Notwithstanding declining exports, domestic demand for frozen potato products is holding up, with a potato processor reporting a 7% increase in North American sales volume last quarter. Fryers drew down frozen stocks by a record 25.2 million pounds in September, and raw product supplies are limited in several processing regions. These conditions could support demand from frozen processors for uncontracted (open-market) potatoes, providing an additional outlet for fresh-market supply. Dehydrator demand, however, remains soft. Fresh potato pricing will depend on weekly shipping rates and consumer demand.
