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Potato producers face high supplies and market pressure. The large 2025 crop (estimated at 412 million cwt) is poised to keep open-market prices below breakeven.
Lower prices helped the fresh market close out 2025 on a strong note. U.S. packers shipped 7.47 million cwt of fresh potatoes in December, the best pace for that month since 2018. Idaho followed suit, moving 3.24 million cwt that month. This reflects the state’s strongest December since 2000 and is well above the five-year average.
Forecasted potato movement for the 2025/26 season varies across potato categories. Shipment of yellow potatoes are expected to remain flat after years of rapid growth. Red shipments are anticipated to pick up modestly following the declines over the past couple of years. Fresh russet shipments are projected to reach a record 71 million cwt.
Globally, supplies remain abundant, adding more weight to the market. Europe harvested another large crop in 2025. European processors expect contract price declines of 10–20% for 2026/27. India and China continue to significantly increase production and gain ground in export markets given competitive pricing. Over the past 20 years, India’s potato production has increased 33% and China’s is up 8%.
Taken together, domestic oversupply and rising global competition will weigh on U.S. processors’ decisions for 2026 contracts. For growers, profitability for 2026/27 will generally hinge on contract terms and cost control. A meaningful reduction in open (i.e., uncontracted) potato acres this spring would also help supply come into better balance with demand.
Profitability
Potatoes (contracted): Slightly profitable – Neutral 12-month outlook
Potatoes (uncontracted): Slightly unprofitable – Bearish 12-month outlook
Contracted potatoes are supported by stable agreements and processor purchases of overages at $2–$3 per cwt, though margins remain thin.
Uncontracted potatoes remain under significant pressure, with oversupply leaving most growers below breakeven despite exceptional yields and quality.
SOURCE: AGWEST FARM CREDIT