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By Ben Eborn, Publisher, North American Potato Market News
USDA estimates that potato growers produced 417.85 million cwt of potatoes during 2024. That is 22.28 million cwt less than the 2023 crop, a 5.1 percent decline. It is 0.4 percent below the five-year average production. Ten of the 13 reporting states posted reduced production in 2024. USDA puts the 2024-crop national average potato yield at 453 cwt per acre. That falls 5 cwt short of the 2023 average yield, 458 cwt per acre. USDA made several changes to its June 28 acreage estimates for the various states. The net result was a 13,000 acre reduction in the 2024 planted area, to 928,000 acres. That is 38,000 acres less than growers planted in 2023. At 923,100 acres, the official harvested area fell 11,100 acres short of USDA’s June forecast. In this article, we review the USDA data and explore the implications for the frozen processing and other industry sectors.
Columbia Basin
USDA estimates that Washington and Oregon growers planted a total of 197,000 acres to potatoes in 2024. That is 11,000 acres less than they planted in 2023. USDA reports that Washington growers planted 155,000 acres of potatoes in 2024. That is 5,000 acres more than its June estimate. It left Oregon’s planted area estimate unchanged at 42,000 acres. USDA puts Washington’s average yield at 645 cwt per acre, 15 cwt per acre above the 2023-crop yield. It is the state’s second largest yield on record (behind 2010), and it matches the 2020 yield. It is 27 cwt per acre above the five-year average. USDA puts Oregon’s average yield at 625 cwt per acre, up from 620 cwt for the 2023 crop. The combined changes result in a 125.9 million cwt potato crop in 2024. That is 4.39 million cwt less than the region produced in 2023, a 3.4 percent reduction.
Idaho
USDA now reports that Idaho growers planted 315,000 acres of potatoes in 2024, which is 10,000 acres less than its June 28 planted area estimate. It is 15,000 acres less than Idaho growers planted in 2023. It estimates the average yield for the 2024 crop at 430 cwt per acre, down from 435 cwt for the 2023 crop. That is 2 cwt above the five-year average yield; however, it is 16 cwt below the long-term trendline. The mid-June frost and late-summer heat caused a lot of size and yield variation in Idaho’s storage crop. USDA puts Idaho’s 2024 potato crop at 135.24 million cwt. That is 8.1 million cwt, or 5.6 percent, less than the 2023 crop.
Upper Midwest
Combined production in the upper Midwest is estimated at 65.28 million cwt. That is 8.46 million cwt less than 2023 production, an 11.5 percent decline. USDA puts Wisconsin’s potato crop at 25.08 million cwt. That is 3.27 million cwt, or 11.5 percent, less than the 2023 crop. Growers abandoned approximately 1,000 acres of potatoes due to consistent rain early in the growing season. The state’s average yield is reported at 380 cwt per acre, down 40 cwt per acre from the 2023 yield. North Dakota growers planted 73,000 acres of potatoes this year. That is 3,000 acres less than they planted in 2023, and it is 1,000 acres less than the USDA reported in June. The agency puts the state’s 2024 yield at 320 cwt per acre, 30 cwt per acre below the 2023 yield. USDA estimates North Dakota’s 2024 potato crop at 23.2 million cwt. That is 3.23 million cwt, or 12.2 percent, less than 2023 production. USDA now reports that Minnesota growers planted 43,000 acres of potatoes in 2024. That is 3,000 acres less than it reported in June. It also is 3,000 acres less than growers planted in 2023. It puts the state’s average yield at 400 cwt per acre, 15 cwt less than the 2023 yield. With those adjustments, Minnesota’s 2024 potato crop is estimated at 17 million cwt. That is 1.97 million cwt less than the state produced in 2023, a 10.4 percent reduction.
Maine
At 18.26 million cwt, USDA’s November crop estimate puts this year’s potato crop 1.46 million cwt above 2023 production, an 8.7 percent increase. USDA increased the state’s planted area from its June estimate by 1,000 acres, to 54,000 acres. Growers harvested 53,700 acres of potatoes in 2024, 1,200 acres more than they harvested in 2023. Favorable spring weather allowed growers to plant a week or two earlier than usual. That was followed by nearly ideal conditions during the entire growing season. USDA puts the state’s yield at 340 cwt per acre. That is 20 cwt more than the 2023 average yield.
Other States
Production in the other six states totaled 73.17 million cwt, down 3.7 percent from 2023 production. USDA puts Colorado’s 2024 potato crop at 21.25 million cwt. That is 153,000 cwt more than the state produced in 2023, a 0.7 percent increase. Michigan’s potato crop is estimated at 22.22 million cwt, up 3.1 percent from the 2023 crop. USDA puts Nebraska’s 2024 potato crop at 9.93 million cwt. That is 803,000 cwt, or 7.5 percent, less than 2023 production. California’s 2024 potato crop is estimated at 8.99 million cwt, down 931,000 cwt, or 9.4 percent, from the previous year. At 6.67 million cwt, USDA’s Texas potato crop estimate falls 46,000 cwt short of 2023 production. USDA puts Florida’s 2024 potato crop at 4.12 million cwt. That is 30.7 percent less than the state produced in 2023. It is Florida’s smallest potato crop since 1951.
Summary
Though production is down from last year in Idaho and the Columbia Basin, raw-product supplies appear to be more balanced with processor demand than they have been during the past several years. Processing supplies could be tight in Wisconsin. The other Midwest processing states and Maine should have an adequate supply of raw product to run plants at capacity this year.
The table potato supply situation is mixed. Russet and yellow potato supplies are plentiful, though red potato supplies could be tight. Reports suggest that growers in Idaho cut back on russet table potato acreage. Russet table potato production appears to be relatively flat in the Columbia Basin, the San Luis Valley and Texas. However, Wisconsin’s russet table potato supplies are down significantly.
Chip potato supplies appear to be plentiful. Increased chip potato production in Michigan and Maine partially offset reduced storage supplies from Wisconsin. The reported downturn in U.S. potato production may not be enough to support significantly stronger prices. Though open-market prices have stabilized during the past several weeks, as of press time, they remain at or below year-earlier levels.
