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Farmer sentiment drifted lower in December as the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer dropped 9 points to a reading of 136. The decline was driven by producers’ weaker perspective on current conditions in U.S. agriculture and their farms, with the Index of Current Conditions falling 13 points to 100. Although the Current Conditions Index declined this month, it remains 24 points above its low in September and 5 points higher than in October. The Index of Future Expectations also fell 8 points to 153, remaining 59 points above its September low and 29 points higher than the October reading. This month’s survey was conducted from Dec. 2-6, 2024.
While sentiment dipped this month, it’s clear that much of the post-election optimism about future conditions is still holding strong. Producers’ optimism about the future seems to stem largely from their expectations for a more favorable policy environment over the next five years. Farmers’ views on the current and long-term outlooks for agriculture showed some noticeable differences in December. While sentiment regarding the current situation and the one-year outlook was more cautious than in November, expectations for the agricultural sector over the next five years were notably more positive. The percentage of producers anticipating widespread good times in U.S. agriculture over the next five years increased to 57%, from 52% in November and 34% in October. This optimism extended across both the crop and livestock sectors, with 4-point and 5-point increases, respectively, in the percentage of respondents expecting good times. In contrast, views on the near-term outlook were less favorable. When asked about financial conditions on their farms compared to a year ago, 57% of producers reported worse conditions in December, up from 51% in November. Similarly, 51% of farmers expressed concern about the U.S. agricultural economy over the next 12 months, an increase from 40% in November.
