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The August Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer dropped 13 points from July to a reading of 100, echoing levels seen from fall 2015 to winter 2016 during the early stages of a significant downturn in the U.S. farm economy. The Index of Current Conditions also dropped 17 points to 83, while the Index of Future Expectations decreased by 11 points to 108. Weakening farm income prospects weighed on farmers’ sentiment as the outlook for a bountiful fall harvest was more than offset by declining crop prices. This month’s decline in the barometer and related indices provide a signal that farmers are concerned about the possibility of extended weakness in farm incomes, similar to what took place from 2015 to 2019. This month’s survey was conducted from Aug. 12-16, 2024.
August’s survey results indicate a shift among farmers’ primary concerns, with 30% of respondents identifying lower commodity prices as their primary concern, compared to 33% who cited high input costs. Last year at this time only 20% pointed to weak commodity prices as a top concern.
At the same time, concerns about rising interest rates have lessened, with only 17% of farmers mentioning this issue, down from 24% last year. Looking ahead, 68% of respondents expect interest rates to decrease in the coming year, while just 19% anticipate an increase.
