By Bruce Huffaker, Publisher, North American Potato Market News
U.S. table potato shipments from the 2018 crop dropped 1.4 percent below year-earlier movement, to 92.7 million cwt. That reduced shipments for the season to the lowest level in modern history.
The 2019 crop is shaping up to see additional declines. Much will depend on how the crop fares during harvest, but by the end of September, the potential for table potato supplies to exceed year-earlier volumes was extremely limited. Growers cut back on table potato acreage. Crops in western and northern growing areas went in the ground seven to 10 days later than usual, on average. Yields in key table potato growing areas are likely to fall short of last year’s records.
Revised data show that growers planted 7,700 more acres to potatoes in 2019 than they planted in 2018. However, those increases came primarily in response to increased demand for fry-quality processing potatoes and chip potatoes. The largest increases came in Washington, Florida, California and Texas. The revised data also show 1,000 acre increases in the potato area for Maine and Wisconsin. The planted area for the other states either matched or fell short of year-earlier acreage.
Fewer Acres, Lower Yields
Table potato acreage appears to be down from last year in a number of states where the total planted area went up, as well as in those states where acreage declined. Washington is a prime example. In addition to planting more ground in response to processing contract volume increases, several growers converted a portion of their table potato ground to processing potatoes. One Columbia Basin packing shed closed its doors at the end of the 2018-crop storage packing season. Reports indicate that a few other Basin sheds intended to close once the harvest was complete. Texas is another example. The largest table potato storage operation in the state cut back its planted area by 25 percent after producing a record crop in 2018. While less dramatic, table potato acreage is also down in Colorado, Idaho, the Red River Valley and Nebraska.
Backward spring weather delayed planting in most western and northern potato growing areas. While crops have made up for some of the delays, growers believe that crop development is seven to 10 days behind average in most of the key storage areas. Where possible, growers delayed vine kill and harvest to let crops bulk up. Columbia Basin crops may have been able to reach their full yield potential before vine kill, but the risk of harvest losses compelled growers in most areas to live with reduced yields.
Test digs in several key states were showing yields on table potatoes that were as much as 50 cwt per acre less than 2018 yields. Both Idaho and the San Luis Valley, the two largest table potato shipping areas in the country, are reporting yields that are well below last year’s records. Growers in several other areas are expecting yields to fall short of those for the 2018 crop. A second year of below-average rainfall will trim yields in the northern Red River Valley. Several factors may have been involved, including acreage cuts, planting delays and frost damage, but we know that Arizona’s shipments fell 31 percent short of last year’s pace. Shipments from Kern County’s spring crop were off by 8.4 percent.
Wisconsin is one of the few growing areas likely to ship more potatoes from its 2019 crop than was available from the 2018 crop. That state was hit by a multitude of problems in 2018, including planting delays, a Memorial Day heatwave that hit much of the potato crop at a critical point in development, excessive rainfall through most of the growing and harvest season, and a hard freeze when several thousand acres of potatoes were left in the ground. Wisconsin crops have faced another challenging year in 2019, but should do better than in 2018 as long as growers can harvest the crop before winter weather sets in. This year’s planting delays were at least as severe as those for the 2018 crop. Wet weather leeched nutrients out of the soil. Test digs are showing that yields may fall short of the 2018 crop. Nevertheless, if the crop can avoid frost damage, shipments from the 2019 crop are expected to exceed year-earlier movement by 25 percent or more. Yet, this year’s shipments from the state are likely to be the second lowest since the state’s 2011 crop.
Supply Shortfall
The net result is that fresh potato shipments from the 2019 crop are likely to fall 4 million to 6 million cwt short of the 92.7 million cwt shipped from the 2018 crop. Shipments from the 2018 crop already fell almost 250,000 cwt short of the 92.95 million cwt of potatoes shipped from the 2010 crop, the previous low volume record for the modern era. This year’s shipping downturn is likely to be unevenly distributed between the various table potato types. Cutbacks in Idaho, the Columbia Basin, the San Luis Valley and Nebraska will have an oversized impact on russet potato shipments. During August and September, red potato shipments were running 29 percent behind last year’s pace. That may improve as the season progresses, but supplies in the largest red potato storage area, the Red River Valley, are likely to fall short of last year’s volume. Other growing areas are not likely to make up the difference. We expect the expansion of yellow potato sales to continue, though shipments during August and September have been running about 14 percent behind last year’s pace.
Growers will need to be careful to avoid taking too low of prices for their potatoes this year. Sharp reductions in the available supply should boost prices well above the cost of production. Last year’s shipping downturn did most to boost prices for red potatoes. Yellow potato prices remain relatively strong. On the other hand, russet table potato growers have struggled with low prices for the past several years. Buyers want to base this year’s pricing on five-year averages. The downturn in supplies should lift prices much higher if growers can even out the flow of potatoes throughout the storage season.
Author’s note: Shipping data cited in this report are adjusted to eliminate movement from the Skagit Valley from the comparisons. This is done to create consistent comparisons, as USDA discontinued reporting movement from that area in 2018. The Skagit Valley ships roughly 2.4 million cwt of potatoes per year, which I have no reason to believe has changed in recent years.
Huffaker’s Highlights:
- Shipments of fresh potatoes from the 2019 crop could fall 5 percent or more short of last year’s record low movement.
- Both acreage and yields for table potatoes will be down from last year.
- Russet potato growers will need to show discipline if they hope to benefit from price increases that should accompany this year’s expected supply shortfall.
